Keywords : Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test

Crude Oil Price, Interest Rate and Unemployment Nexus in Nigeria: An Application of Toda and Yamamoto Long-Run Causality Procedure

Rabiu Maijama’a; Kabiru Saidu Musa

Marketing and Branding Research, 2021, Volume 8, Issue 1, Pages 1-16
DOI: 10.33844/mbr.2021.60326

This study aims to examine the relationship between crude oil price, interest rate and the
unemployment rate in Nigeria using times series data for the 1991-2019 periods. The
stationarity property of the series was examined using Augmented Dickey and Fuller
(1979) and Elliot, Rothenberg and Stock’s (1996) unit root test. The outcomes of
Augmented Dickey and Fuller indicated a mixture of an order of integration among the
series while Elliot et al.’s (1996) unit root test revealed that all the series are stationary at
the first difference and therefore are said to integrate of order one. The Toda and
Yamamoto long-run granger causality indicated that one-way causality exists flowing
from crude oil price to unemployment rate, unemployment rate to interest rate, population
growth to the unemployment rate, crude oil price to interest rate and population growth
to interest rate alongside two-way causality flowing from population growth to crude oil
price. Therefore, based on the empirical outcomes we recommended that labour will serve
as an efficient substituting factor of production for energy and capital in the case of the
Nigerian economy and Nigerian government should develop both industrial and non
crude oil sectors to create employment opportunities for the unemployed teeming
population as well as increasing the country’s export.